From free fall to strong comeback: Stocks fight their way back
After a wild April with tariff turmoil and record-breaking declines, global stock markets are strongly rebounding – and so is the return for PFA’s customers. The significant shift in sentiment is primarily due to milder tones in Trump’s trade war and the USA’s dialogue with China, which is good news for the global economy.
It has been an eventful spring on the stock market with some wild ups and downs. Particularly in early April, things looked bleak when Trump celebrated his so-called liberation day by imposing double-digit tariffs on most of the world. Since then, the tone has softened, especially in the dialogue between the USA and China, which has brought new optimism to the markets and sent stocks in a clear positive direction.
“The USA has just met with China, where they agreed to reduce tariffs for a temporary period of 90 days. This was well received by the markets, which rose nicely afterward and have now recouped the declines that occurred after ‘liberation day’ on April 2nd,” says PFA’s Chief Strategist, Tine Choi Danielsen.
European investors have been hit twice
When things looked worst on April 8th, the leading American stock index, S&P500, according to the Chief Strategist, was down 15 percent since the start of the year. This decline has now been recouped, and S&P500 could yesterday note a small gain of 0.1 percent for the year. As a European investor, however, one must consider that the dollar has weakened by 7.5 percent against the euro since the start of the year.
“At PFA, we have protected ourselves against exchange rate fluctuations, so our customers are not as severely impacted on their returns if the dollar weakens against the euro. This has been advantageous in 2025, where many foreign investors have been hit twice by both currency and stock declines,” says Tine Choi Danielsen.
She clarifies that the S&P500 index, including the dollar’s weakening, is still down by 7.5 percent.
Trade war dampens growth prospects
Although the past few weeks have shown solid and encouraging progress, it does not mean that all problems are now solved, and we are back to a world as we knew it before Trump pressed the tariff button.
“The USA still has an additional tariff of at least 10 percent over most of the world and 30 percent against China. This can be seen in the global growth forecasts, which have been adjusted down by up to one percentage point since the start of the year. Furthermore, there is still a lot of uncertainty that companies must navigate, as many of the trade political battles have been more postponed than actually resolved,” says Tine Choi Danielsen.
She therefore assesses that the current optimism is primarily due to the relief that Trump has shown himself willing to negotiate, rather than finding long-term solutions.
PFA’s customers have come through market turmoil well
The positive development has not only provided tailwinds on the global stock markets – according to the Chief Strategist, it has also positively impacted the returns for PFA’s many pension customers.
“The vast majority of our customers have followed our recommendation and stuck to their investment choices during the turmoil. This means that they have fully benefited from the recent weeks’ stock market upturn and returns for many are close to being back in the black. This is very encouraging, considering the large declines we faced just a few weeks ago,” says Chief Strategist Tine Choi Danielsen.
She also reminds that pension is long-term savings and clarifies that a typical PFA customer over 3 years has achieved a return of 17 percent, which is among the best in the industry.