Trump's first 100 Days: Tariffs, tweets, and turbulence

Donald Trump's First 100 days have seen the worst start for a US President in recent times, judged by stock market performance in the US. PFA’s chief strategist, Tine Choi Danielsen, takes a look at both the development and the ongoing tussle between Trump, the stock markets, China, and the rest of the world.

Rewind to the beginning of the year, and few would have believed that the US stock market would have dropped by 6 percent five months later. But this has become a reality after Trump announced tariffs against most of the world in early April.

“While Trump was very much the stock markets' president during his first term, this time he has been more focused on pushing through his trade policy agenda, aiming to reduce the US trade deficit and become less dependent on China in particular. This ambition may seem sensible, but achieving it through a global trade war is far more debatable. It’s certainly not a path that has inspired much confidence in the US stock markets, which have fallen by 7.8 percent since his inauguration on January 20,” says PFA’s chief strategist, Tine Choi Danielsen.

She emphasizes that the significant stock declines have come despite the fact that the US entered the year with a strong economic position, with positive growth expectations and strong earnings from many American companies.

Great political and economic uncertainty
According to the chief strategist, no president in recent times has had a worse start in office than Trump from a stock market perspective. The closest comparison is G. W. Bush, who struggled with a dotcom crash and very weak growth. This is not the case with Trump, who inherited a robust economy, and where the stock downturn is instead a self-inflicted consequence of the great economic uncertainty his trade war has caused.

“Right now, we can barely see a day ahead, and no one knows how high the tariffs will end up being or how long they will last. Therefore, it is also difficult to predict where the economy is headed, and I can’t recall ever being in a situation where economic experts almost weekly update their views on recession risks. This naturally creates turbulence in the markets, as stock prices are largely a reflection of investors' expectations for future growth,” says Tine Choi Danielsen.

Although it may be difficult to look ahead, she notes that Trump has recently softened somewhat and has backtracked on some of his most aggressive trade policy statements.

“It seems that after April 9, when he announced a temporary tariff pause of 90 days, Trump has become more restrained—perhaps in a delayed realization that it is quicker to change tariffs than to move jobs and production. The flat tariff of ten percent still remains, and it is unclear what will happen regarding China, which is the US's third-largest trading partner and also has a monopoly on many of the materials that modern technology relies on, including American cars and mobile phones. This alone is enough to keep the stock markets on their toes,” says Tine Choi Danielsen.

Unsual Trend: “Sell America”
The continued uncertainty also means, according to the chief strategist, that PFA has scaled down its shares in the US in favor of Europe, which has not experienced the same stock decline. In fact, the European Stoxx600 index has risen by 3.4 percent year-to-date. This is a significant shift after several years of American stock dominance, and the trend has also manifested in other aspects of the economy.

“Where the US was previously considered a safe haven, the country has suddenly become a source of global turmoil and uncertainty. This has not only affected stock prices, but the dollar has also fallen in value, and the interest rate on US government bonds has risen due to sell-offs. It’s still too early to predict long-term trends, but it is well-known that it takes less time to destroy a reputation than to build it, and right now trust in the US is severely lacking,” she says.

Key dates in Trump’s trade war

• April 2: "Liberation Day": Trump announces a 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries—34% on Chinese goods and 20% on EU imports. This causes sharp market declines, with the S&P 500 dropping over 10% in two days and having the worst week since the COVID-19 recession in 2020.
   
• April 3-4: China retaliates with a 34% tariff on American goods, causing the S&P 500 to fall by an additional 4.8%.
   
• ​April 9: President Trump announces a 90-day pause on tariffs exceeding 10% for most countries, except China, whose tariff was increased to 145%.​
   
• April 11: Trump exempts electronics, such as smartphones and computers, from mutual tariffs but maintains that they could still be subject to duties moving forward.
   
• April 11-29: The combination of the tariff pause and exemption of electronics has been positively received in the stock markets, with the S&P 500 rising 11 percent since the stocks hit bottom, but the index is still down 10 percent from the peak it reached on February 19, 2025.